NRL 2020 info

NRL 2020

Welcome to another NRL season. This document will walk you through everything.

When will bets be sent

This week we will send them at 10 am AEDT on the day of the game.

After this week, we will see what sort of limits were available and how much the market moved.

By week 3 we will have locked in a time that will see us through to season end.

Betting Bank

Each person’s risk profile is different. Figuring out your betting bank at the beginning of the season is very important and you will need to stick to it for the entire season.

We advise unit stakes and our official results are based on 1 unit being $100. We advise a 60-120 unit bank (depending on the amount of risk/return you want). That means if your bank for the entire season is $10,000 and you are using a 100 unit bank, then 1 unit would be $10,000/ 100 = $100

You can have a higher or lower bank depending on your risk tolerance.

In the example above, a $10,000 bank at 60 units is ~$165 per unit and at 80 units it would be $125 per unit bet.

Our aim per season is to make between 50-100% of the bank.

Getting best odds

The odds you get are the most important thing in your control. You should have accounts open with as many bookies as possible (and take advantage of their sign up bonuses if you do sign up).

If you are just betting at 1 or 2 bookies, you will be lucky to break even over the season.

Find an odds comparison site to use, BUT never click through to the bookmakers’ site via them.

Track your bets

This takes 10 seconds to do and is very important. How can you know how you are going unless you track your bets. Download the spreadsheet below.

Lesson 1: Tracking Bets

What to bet

The official bets will be based on all head to head bets with odds >$1.60 from Round 1 to end of Round 17 and also in the finals. We will not bet the week before Origin and will only bet on favs the week after.

We do not suggest betting on favs paying under $1.60. There is data to show that very short priced favs $1.40 and under make a profit and the choice to bet them is up to you.

2019 results saw turnover of $28,665.00 over 95 bets for a loss of $1,168.37 @ -4.1% ROI.

Since 2014, the NRL model has turned over $155,270.00 over 744 bets for a profit of $9,131,81 at a 5.9% ROI.

You don’t need to worry too much as I will clearly show what to bet on each week.

Odds recording

We will be recording at the second-best Australian bookmaker odds at time of release. As Pinnacle has left our market it doesn’t make sense to use their odds as most Australians cannot bet with them (and they no longer take big bets).

Analysis from Jonno

Jonno has gone over the results since 2014 (from his own data/odds) and you can see the data here. This is a sample size of 887 bets.

As we can see betting on odds $1.60 and greater is where all the profit is. Betting on odds under $1.60 shows a -4% ROI and betting on odds over $1.60 shows a 12.6% ROI.

Betting the week before origin has been shown to be unprofitable (low sample size)

Betting the week after origin on all favs has been profitable (low sample size).

Betting all odds up to round 21 is profitable, although betting odds only over $1.60 is profitable to round 18

Round profit betting only odds $1.60 and over

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Line betting is profitable when the line is from -5 to positive. It is not profitable betting Line bets the weeks before or after Origin.

Line betting is fairly profitable throughout the entire season.

Some likely events this year

Every year the same things repeat.

  • We will win every bet in a week (you will think the model is amazing)
  • We will lose every bet in a week (you will think the model is shit)
  • We will lose a big bet after the siren on some freak play
  • We will get lucky with a big bet
  • You will check your phone for live scores all season long
  • You will get emotional
  • When we have a good week, no one will post in the comments
  • When we have a bad week, everyone will vent.

This will not make you rich

We are aiming for a long-term 2-5% ROI with this service. A 2% return means for every $100 you bet, we expect to get $102 back ($2 profit). This model will not make you rich (nor any other tipster products).

It should give you an interest in the games each week and long-term also a nice small profit each year.

Also remember that you are gambling, and you can lose. Please make sure you do not bet more than you can afford to lose. A good test to see if a 1 unit stake is too high is to figure out what 1 unit is for you and BURN 1 unit. Literally, take $100 and set it alight. If you can’t do that, your unit stake is too high.

The key is to bet just enough to have fun.

Any questions?

Just comment below

Enjoy

All the serious stuff is out of the way and the first bet is a few days away. Let’s hope for another great NRL season.

Cheers
Steve

7 Comments

  1. overloaded says:

    Will you be posting Totals bets again this year Steve?

  2. Mouawad says:

    As it currently stands Betfair won’t be offering bets on NRL this season due to the very high product fee being demanded.

  3. dialbo81 says:

    I notice the spreadsheet version says 2019.1
    Is this right? Just want to check there’s not been any tweaks since last year and a new version issued.

Leave a Reply