AFL 2020 info

AFL 2020

Welcome to another AFL season. This document will walk you through everything.

When will bets be sent (NRL and AFL)

Please note that we have no idea if the NRL and AFL seasons will go ahead, so as more info comes out we may change these times.

Above are the results from the NRL survey. We had 60 people express their vote and it was extremely close. A slight majority preferred a 7 pm update time.

As final teams are not announced the night before for Thursday and Friday night games, after talking to Jonno, we have decided on the following schedule.

NRL: Thursday and Friday games will be sent out at 10:00 am the day of the game. Friday and Saturday night at 7:00 pm we will send out the Saturday and Sunday plays

AFL: Thursday and Friday games will be sent out at 10:10 am the day of the game. Friday and Saturday night at 7:15 pm we will send out the Saturday and Sunday plays

Analysis

We can see that betting up until Week 15 is profitable.

H2H Betting data from 2013 to 2019

 

Line betting data from 2013 to 2019 season

 

What to bet

The official bets will be based on all head to head bets up to Round 12 (of 17). This is to bring the AFL in line with the NRL recording.

Many members will prefer to follow the line bets and they will also be uploaded to the site.

You can read this post to help make the decision for you. The decision is up to you and I will not be holding your hand on this decision.

Personally, I will just be following the H2H bets, mostly because I am unable to get sizeable bets on these days and because I want to bet about the same on the AFL as I do on the NRL. If I could get bets on I would take the time to find the best line and bet them instead (but I can’t). Line bets will give you a much smoother ride and about the same ROI.

Odds recording

Like last year, we will be recording at the second-best price in the Australian market at the time of release.

Some likely events this year

Every year the same things repeat.

  • We will win every bet in a week (you will think the model is amazing)
  • We will lose every bet in a week (you will think the model is shit)
  • We will lose a big bet after the siren on some freak play
  • We will get lucky with a big bet
  • You will check your phone for livescores all season long
  • You will get emotional
  • When we have a good week, no one will post in the comments
  • When we have a bad week, everyone will vent.

This will not make you rich

We are aiming for a long-term 2-5% ROI with this service. A 2% return means for every $100 you bet, we expect to get $102 back ($2 profit). This model will not make you rich (nor any other tipster products).

It should give you an interest in the games each week and long-term also a nice small profit each year.

Also remember that you are gambling, and you can lose. Please make sure you do not bet more than you can afford to lose. A good test to see if a 1 unit stake is too high is to figure out what 1 unit is for you and BURN 1 unit. Literally, take $100 and set it alight. If you can’t do that, your unit stake is too high.

The key is to bet just enough to have fun.

Any questions?

Just comment below

Enjoy

Let’s hope for a complete AFL season

Cheers
Steve

Leave a Reply