Value Bets Sunday

Value Bets Sunday

Bet 1 – North Melbourne v West Coast @ 1.10pm Vic (AFL)

$175 West Coast @ $1.33 (Sportsbet)
$50 West Coast @ $1.35 (BlueBet)
$25 West Coast @ $1.35 (TAB)

$50 Melbourne @ $3.35 (TABtouch)
$50 Melbourne @ $3.35 (William Hill)

Outcomes:
NM win: $15.00 Loss
WCE win: $16.00 Loss

Potential Bonuses:
Sportsbet: $28.88FB Bonus equal to 50% of your H2H winnings if your team win by 18+ points ($50 max).
TABtouch: $50 Refund if your team score 60+ points but lose the match.
TAB: $20 Refund ($25 NSW) if your team lose by 30 points or less (Min $20 bet ($25 for NSW).
William Hill: $50FB Bonus if your team lose by 32 points or less.
BlueBet: $50 Refund if your team lose by 18 points or less.

Other Offers:
Madbookie: $50FB Bonus if your team lead at 3/4 time and lose.
Betting.club: $50FB Bonus if your team score 90+ points and lose the match.

Bet 2 – Adelaide v GWS @ 3.20pm Vic (AFL)

$125 GWS @ $1.81 (Sportsbet)
$50 GWS @ $1.80 (BlueBet)

$50 Adelaide @ $2.20 (TABtouch)
$50 Adelaide @ $2.20 (William Hill)
$25 Adelaide @ $2.30 (TAB)
$30 Adelaide @ $2.00 (Betting.club)

Outcomes:
ADE win: $13.75 Loss
GWS win: $13.75 Loss

Potential Bonuses:
Sportsbet: $50FB Bonus equal to 50% of your H2H winnings if your team win by 18+ points.
TABtouch: $50 Refund if your team score 60+ points but lose the match.
TAB: $20 Refund ($25 NSW) if your team lose by 30 points or less (Min $20 bet ($25 for NSW).
William Hill: $50FB Bonus if your team lose by 32 points or less.
BlueBet: $50 Refund if your team lose by 18 points or less.
Betting.club: $30FB Bonus if your team score 90+ points and lose the match ($50 max).

Other Offers:
Madbookie: $50FB Bonus if your team lead at 3/4 time and lose.

Bet 3 – Fremantle v Geelong @ 7.40pm Vic (AFL)

$200 Geelong @ $1.50 (Sportsbet)
$50 Geelong @ $1.50 (BlueBet)

$50 Fremantle @ $2.60 (TABtouch)
$50 Fremantle @ $2.60 (William Hill)
$25 Fremantle @ $2.60 (TAB)
$20 Fremantle @ $2.62 (TAB)

Outcomes:
FRE win: $17.60 Loss
GEE win: $20.00 Loss

Potential Bonuses:
Sportsbet: $50FB Bonus equal to 50% of your H2H winnings if your team win by 18+ points.
TABtouch: $50 Refund if your team score 60+ points but lose the match.
TAB: $20 Refund ($25 NSW) if your team lose by 30 points or less (Min $20 bet ($25 for NSW).
William Hill: $50FB Bonus if your team lose by 32 points or less.
BlueBet: $50 Refund if your team lose by 18 points or less.
Madbookie: $20FB Bonus if your team lead at 3/4 time and lose ($50 max).

Other Offers:
Betting.club: $50FB Bonus if your team score 90+ points and lose the match.

Bet 4 – Wests Tigers v Melbourne @ 4.00pm Vic (NRL)

H2H
$135 Melbourne @ $1.52 (Sportsbet)

$50 Wests Tigers @ $2.56 (Madbookie)
$50 Wests Tigers @ $2.60 (Betting.club)

First Tryscorer
$50 Josh Addo-Carr @ $7.00 (TAB)

Note: I have structured the H2H bets to provide a stronger result if WT win to offset the First Tryscorer refund we will receive if MEL win. I suggest having the WT H2H result equal $50 than that of MEL for this reason.

Outcomes:
MEL win: $29.80 Loss
WT win: $23.00 Profit

Potential Bonuses:
TAB: $50 Refund if your First Tryscorer bet loses but his team wins the match.
Sportsbet: $48.75FB Bonus equal to 50% of your winnings if your team win by 6+ points ($50 max).
Madbookie: $50FB Bonus if your team lose by 3 points or less.
Betting.club: $25FB Bonus if your team score 4+ tries and lose ($50 max).

Bet 5 – St George v New Zealand @ 6.30pm Vic (NRL)

H2H
$100 New Zealand @ $1.95 (Sportsbet)

$50 St George @ $1.89 (Madbookie)
$25 St George @ $1.91 (Betting.club)

First Tryscorer
$50 Nene Macdonald @ $9.00 (TAB)

Note: I have structured the H2H bets to provide a stronger result if NZ win to offset the First Tryscorer refund we will receive if STG win. I suggest having the NZ H2H result equal $50 than that of STG for this reason.

Outcomes:
NZ win: $20.00 Profit
STG win: $32.75 Loss

Potential Bonuses:
TAB: $50 Refund if your First Tryscorer bet loses but his team wins the match.
Sportsbet: $47.50FB Bonus equal to 50% of your winnings if your team win by 6+ points ($50 max).
Madbookie: $50FB Bonus if your team lose by 3 points or less.
Betting.club: $25FB Bonus if your team score 4+ tries and lose ($50 max).

Bet 6 – Australian F1 Grand Prix

$50 Sebastian Vettel @ $4.50 (Crownbet)
LAY $47.37 Sebastian Vettel @ $4.80 (Betfair)

Outcomes:
VET wins: $5.00 Loss
VET loses: $5.00 Loss

Potential Bonuses:
Crownbet: $50FB Bonus (5,000 rewards points) if your driver fails to win but finishes in the top 5.

Racing Offers Sunday

Below I’ve listed majority of the other Racing offers around. We now have a ‘Racing Refund Offers’ betting guide under the ‘Getting Started’ tab at the top of the site to have a read of. This should explain how to use all of these offers if you aren’t already familiar with extracting some value from them.

TAB are refunding your FIXED ODDS bets as cash to $50 on Scone Race 7 if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd.

William Hill are refunding your FIXED ODDS bets as a free bet up to $50 on Scone Race 7 if your horse runs in the first half of the field.

William Hill are refunding your FIXED ODDS bets as a free bet up to $50 on Sha Tin Races 1-10 if your horse runs 2nd.

TABtouch have a bonus SuperPick available today (in addition to your daily SuperPick) on Mount Barker Race 7. This includes a 50% cash bonus on your winnings up to $50.

12 Comments

  1. Greeno says:

    Anyone else getting alerts popping up at Tab Touch about max bet exceeded and smaller suggested bets? Comes and then it’s gone a little later when trying again…

    • Ryan says:

      Pretty sure that’s just TAB Touch hitting their exposure limit for a certain team at a certain price; their traders would then review the liabilities on that match at the current prices and change the prices where necessary. If that’s correct it wouldn’t have anything to do with individual accounts.

    • AM2011 says:

      I would say its there limits are getting smashed I tried got $26 then tried 10sec got max $42

      so i put $50 on adelaide and it went straight through

  2. Greeno says:

    It seems to chop and change with multiple attempts…leave it alone and try a bit later

  3. sporto says:

    Is this the last day of First try scorer promotion? If so go Ado Carr and Mcdonald to bring us home

  4. Greeno says:

    Yep, thank F$!# for that…$1,000 blown with not one winner. I much prefer the steady stream of small winners from most of the other promos

  5. Darren Smith says:

    How do they know? The corps, I mean, really?, how? but it seems they do.
    This weekend has been a disaster. Would doubt more than 1 or 2 of offers have beared fruit for more than a week. Given account restrictions/ bans etc really tough this week end and previous week ends leading, also in a premium offer period very disappointing to say the least. Cant remember a worse time for ages. Time to fold and go fishing for a while I think. They are smart cookies for sure. Maybe try to take their lead but they are too smart for me to pick it.GL.

  6. Greeno says:

    As unlucky as i’ve been with the FTS promo Daz, and I know it’s good value (apparently) I know guys with ‘mates’ who can use more than one book at a time and have pulled $600-$700 of cash back and promos in the last couple weekends. Maybe you’re just on a bad run…a couple weeks isn’t a long time. Next week you’re just as likely to hit every one you place

    • Josh says:

      Yeah it’s the old saying of you can’t eat value I suppose. You can play value but it doesn’t always correlate to wins in the short-term unfortunately. It’s disappointing to hear you had such a string of bad luck (it is that as throwing darts at 2 players in each game should see you hit at least one across 32 matches!).

      Darren, in terms of the value around in general, the offers are very strong on the AFL. Without being privvy to what plays you’ve made and who you’re ineligible with, you won’t find many better options than the AFL at the moment. For example, the TABtouch offer alone should have meant you profited this weekend with every losing side scoring 60+ and that’s before any other offers hitting which despite the blowouts, still hit a number of times across different books.

      I’ll ask a genuine question Darren, what are your expectations of the value bets you’re placing?

      Once I’ve finalised this weeks results I’ll reply with some numbers but genuinely interested in your thoughts as your comment last night surprised me a little.

      • Greeno says:

        I think it was Steve who talked about how the bad runs, psychologically, have a far greater impact and affect your decision making much more than the winning runs. The probability of going 0/32 must be tiny but it will happen to everyone at some stage. I’m making sure I focus on all great promos that are hitting at the moment and the fact that i’ve easily made triple what those FTS bets lost with the sportpunter tips in the last two weeks 😀
        Hang in there Daz….(and open some bowlers)

  7. sporto says:

    Awesome week josh, with last tues harness tip , your other tips plus my own backing and laying sat morn first 4 races I grossed 1300 bucks last 8 days

    • AM2011 says:

      agree sporto, I picked up over 1200 this week as i placed some different value bets to the suggested ones with the tab touch promo.

      but I lost about 300-400 on Draft Stars and Moneyball

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