2nd year update – Sportpunter

2nd year update – Sportpunter

Dailyprofit 2nd Year Review

DPlogoWow, 2 years has gone by in a flash and the Dailyprofit service continues to grow and make members a healthy profit from their betting. A good idea would be to read last years review before reading this one. Dailyprofit now has a real community of smart punters not only earning a very healthy side income, but also helping each other in the forums. We all know how difficult it is to make a profit betting, but that Sportpunter edge still remains and has given members their second positive year in a row.

Dailyprofit is split into two distinct services. We have the Value & Risk free service that is open to Australian members only. This service takes advantage of ongoing bookmaker promotions to make huge profits for very little risk. I will be updating our 2nd year results for that service next week. Today I will take a look at the overall results for the other part of Dailyprofit. The Sportpunter selections are for everyone and offer bets on a number of sports all generated by the world’s best sport modeler. This is the pure gambling side of the service. This means that there is always the risk of losing money. But by using the best tipster and a structured portfolio we can minimise the risk and maximise the profit.

We will look at the results in year 2 and since inception and then do a sport by sport breakdown before ending with my thoughts on the second year.

Since day 1, the Dailyprofit service has been known for it’s honesty and transparency. We update the results at the same time every week (no matter if we win or lose), our odds recording policy is second to none and we go above and beyond for our customers and we are even transparent in letting everyone know how much the service makes. There is no other tipping service in the world like ours. You can read over 60 testimonials here.

How we record odds

Odds recording is one of the many ways a dodgy tipster can make their results look better. Odds should be recorded in a way that shows what the person using the service can expect to achieve at a minimum and with some effort easily beat. That is the goal of the Dailyprofit odds recording policy. I have yet to see any other service record as fairly as we do.

This means we will never make claims of 10-20% ROI. We easily could by always recording at the top odds and best lines. But I am sure you have signed up to a tipster like that before and quickly realised there is no way you can get those odds and the odds you can get make it a losing service. It’s the opposite here, not only are the odds achievable, they are easy to beat if you have accounts with more than 1 bookmaker.

For American sports (NFL, MLB, NBA, & NHL) we take the price of pinnacle or 5dimes at time of release. 95% of the time that means we take the pinnacle price.

For Australian sports (AFL, NRL and Super Rugby) we take the average price between pinnacle and the best Australian bookmaker. Pinnacle is usually the lowest price when we release and this means if you have access to Australian bookmakers, you will beat the official odds every time, and by a huge margin. This new odds policy will have dropped our ROI by at least 3-5%, but it makes sure all members beat official results. The AFL Line bets are from Topsports $2 lines and these bets are a max of 2 units and are usually 1-3 points worse then the general market.

We also release our plays on the day of the game (or the night before), which means markets have formed and all members can get on. Many tipsters release midweek and only 1 or 2 people can secure their official (unrealistic) odds.

What this means is that the results below are the minimum you can expect from the service and with a tiny bit of effort you will beat these results. We will always be in the 1-5% ROI category because we are more then honest with our odds recording.

Bank Size

In our first season we suggested a bank size of 40 units. As we were unsure of how the service would perform, I made a general stab (with data to back it up) of what a safe bank size would be. For members following both services, this was the right bank size. In the second season we advised members that a 50 unit bank would be better if only following the Spotpunter model. For our third year we feel the 50 unit bank is still correct.

Sportpunter Year 2: 5 July 2015 – 5 July 2016

Lets start by looking at the overall picture before drilling down into each specific sport. The first graph are the results for our second year of betting. As you can see things did not start well and for a good 6 month period we were either in a loss or treading water. The new year bought a great run before another dip took us back to break even for the year. So if you had followed every model, after 8 months of betting you would have been right back where you started. The final 4 months of the year saw a good run to end year 2 at a total profit of 22.0842 units ($2,208.42 if using $100 per unit).

This graph gives a pretty good example of what you can expect when betting. Long periods of going nowhere followed by jumps either up or down. The graph looks extremely volatile and that is variance at work, but once we look over longer periods of time, the graph will look smoother. This is also another reason why you need to see an entire season out. If you continually switch tipster services after a bad run, you will lose money until you stop betting. Once you know a tipster records fair odds and works for you, the only way to make a profit is over a long time-frame. If you can’t commit a year to it, then this service is not for you.

Sportpunteryear2

The Below graph are the results since the service started 2 years ago. This graph still shows how bumpy betting is, but the graph looks smoother than the one above. As the years progress, the overall chart should continue to smooth out and look like a slow and steady climb to the top right.

Alltimegraph

performaneyear2We can also look at a bit more data. We placed 1,571 bets over the year and placed a total of 2,120.25 units. That’s an average bet size per bet of 1.35 units.

1 unit correlates to $100 in our spreadsheet (so a $5,000 bank split into 50 units = $100 per unit).

We lost more bets then we won (740 wins and 761 losses), but as the average odds we bet at were $2.12 it means we still make a decent profit.

Our total return was 22.0842 units, or $2,208.42 if you had a $5,000 bank. That’s a 44.1684% Return on capital (ROC) for the year. To put that into perspective, we can compare how that same $5,000 would have done in the Australian stock market. The return on capital (ROC) for the same time period was just 1.3%. That same $5,000 bank which returned members $2,208 profit would have returned $65 in the stock market. We all know property prices have gone crazy this past year and over the last year they have gone up 17.2% in Australia. So $5,000 invested in property would have made you $860 profit.

While our ROI at 1.04% seems low, the fact that we are able to turn our bank over 42 times over a year is what allows us to easily beat even the best performing asset class of the last year.

In year 1 we turned our bank over 32 times and made a similar profit (23.5478 units). It is good to see this sort of consistency.

In total, since the site started we have bet a total of 3,406.65 units across 2,763 bets and returned a profit of 45.632 units at a 1.34% ROI.

AFL

afldata1By far the biggest disappointment for me is the AFL model. This is the backbone of the Sportpunter models and the service I bet the most on. Year 2’s results include the last few rounds of the 2015 season and the first 15 rounds of the 2016 AFL season. The 2016 season saw the introduction of Head to Head betting as well as the continuation of Line betting.

afldata2We bet a total of 288.75 units and lost 12.7551 units. A negative ROI of 4.42%. The Head to Head bets were profitable with the Line bets doing most of the damage.

It should be noted that a number of line bets lost by half or 1 point and the lines had improved after the release time. We tell members the best time to place each bet, and these wins would have improved the figures to a much smaller loss. But that does not come close to where I feel the AFL model should be. I’m positive the model will revert back to its very profitable origins and see a very healthy return in year 3.
aflyear2

We should also take a quick look at the AFL results since day 1. We have bet a total of 472.50 units and returned 2.9949 units at a 0.63% ROI. Not a great return, but it is due to the way we record odds. I believe we will see a long term 2% return on this model and members taking best prices will see a 5% ROI.

NRL

This is the most surprising of all the models. It has performed above and beyond what I assumed it would. Like the AFL model, these results include the end of the 2015 season and the first 17 rounds of the 2016 season. We moved from Line betting only in 2015 to H2H betting only in 2016 and it has been a great call. We still offer advice on unofficial line bets but they are not recorded. I have not kept results but can only assume they have done fairly well as they are based off the H2H bets.

nrldataWe bet a total of 326 units and won 37.4579 units in year 2. A massive 11.49% ROI. As mentioned previously, we are only taking the average odds between pinnacle and the top australian book, which is usually between 5-10% worse then taking the best odds. A massive return but one that is impossible to achieve going forward.

nrlyear2

Looking at the results since day 1 we also see a great return. We have bet 495.25 units and returned 56.2079 units at 11.35%. We have placed over 300 bets on this model and the numbers are beyond anything I have seen before. It would be a very happy member who only followed the NRL.

Super Rugby

One of the worst performing models in year 2 and the worst performing of all time. Again we moved from Line to H2H bets on this model for year 2, but the vast majority are on the underdogs and this season they have not performed at all. Hopefully Jonno can look more into this model and improve it drastically for next season.

rugbydataWe bet a total of 96.5 units and lost 17.0561 units at a massive negative ROI of 17.67%. There is nothing more to say then it has been an atrocious season (just like last years). The model will continue into year 3, but I would be hesitant to follow it.

rugbyyear2

The all time results are just as ugly. With a total bet amount of 192.90 units and a total loss of 29.4561 units at a negative ROI of 15.27% this model is clearly the worst one on the Dailyprofit site. Rugby is a stupid sport anyway 🙂 haha.

NFL

nfldata1Onto the first of our American sports and a classic case of sticking with it. For the majority of the season it was in profit and treading water, before the model went into negative for the year, but just as soon as it went negative, it had one of those weeks followed by a crazy run all the way to the superbowl which left it with a huge profit for the year.

nfldata2We offer both Line and Totals betting for the NFL. In total we bet 601 units and made a 30.7612 unit profit for the season at a 5.12% ROI. The Line bets were the star, returning 36.903 units at 11.6% while the totals lost 6.1418 units at a -2.2% ROI.

nflyear2

Since day 1, the NFL has been our second best performer after the NRL. It has turned over 700 units and made 38.6972 units profit at a very respectable 5.53% ROI. I can’t wait for the season to start in early September.

NBA

nbadataThis was a very strange NBA season as you can see by the graph. In our first 40 picks we won 67.5% of them and the graph shot up to over 21 units profit in just 9 days. Over the next 4 months it went up and down and ended at around the same unit profit. It was in the last 30 picks where we lost 71% of the bets and over 11 units. We ended the season in profit, but it is one of the stranger graphs I have seen.

We bet a total of 283.75 units and made a profit of 8.8862 units at a 3.13% ROI. All these bets are totals (Over/Under) bets.

nbayear2

Since day 1 we have placed 368.25 units worth of bets for 4.4615 units of profit at 1.21% ROI. Personally I do not feel it is worth the time and effort to place these bets each day.

NHL

nhldataA very average year for the NHL. This is another model where we only bet the total (Over/Under). The issue I have with this model is that of the 149 bets we placed, only 19 (12.75%) of our bets were on the Unders.

We bet a total of 221 units and lost 1.3465 units at a -0.61% ROI.

nhlyear2

Since day 1, we have bet a total of 609.25 units for a 15.9494 unit loss at -2.62% ROI. This is our second worst performing model. I am unsure if I will continue offering this model in year 3.

MLB

mlbdataWe end on the worst model of year 2. This model only lasted for about 4 months before Jonno decided to pull it from his site. The last month we lost 13 of the last 14 bets and ended the season with a big loss.

We bet a total of 303.25 units and lost 23.8637 units at a negative ROI of -7.87%.

mlbyear2

Since day 1 we have bet a total of 568.50 units and lost 11.324 units. That’s a -1.99% ROI. We will not be offering MLB in the foreseeable future.

Suggested portfolio results

At the end of the first year’s update I suggested the best (and easiest) portfolio to follow. I said.

I would only follow the AFL, NRL, S15 and NFL models. Now once again, in hindsight these are the best models (apart from S15, and not taking into account the MLB). By just following this portfolio you would have turned over 548.40 units and made 30 units profit at 5.47% ROI.

This is low stress, fairly low variance and high return on investment.

surveyreviewIf members had taken my advice, how would they have gone?

They would have bet a total of 1,312.25 units and made a profit of 38.4079 units. That is a return on investment of 2.92% at official odds.

Not only does this offer a better return, but it is also much less work, as you are only betting on the weekend.

If you had followed this portfolio since the start, you would have turned over 1,860.65 units and made a profit of 68.4439 units. A 3.67% ROI.

My suggestion for year 3 would be to ditch the Super Rugby and just bet on the AFL, NRL and NFL going forward. This would still mean you have almost year round betting (except for February) but you only need to place bets on the weekend and you will receive a better return.

According to the survey I conducted at the start of the year, many of you followed my advice. 90% of Sportpunter members followed the AFL, 86.67% followed the NFL, and 83.33% followed the NRL.

Super Rugby had 58.33% following and the NBA had 51.67% of members following. Happily, only 41.67% followed the MLB and 38.33% followed the NHL.

Something to take into account

One thing that every other tipster won’t talk about is the subscription fee. They want you to forget about this when looking at the results. But it is a real cost to you and needs to be factored into your decision on whether you should follow a service. The Sportpunter service started at $33/month and slowly increased over time to now be $137/month. Members who joined at $33 per month received the deal of the century as all members stay on whatever amount they signed up at. The average price a Sportpunter subscriber pays is currently $52. That means if you followed for the entire year you will have paid $624 (on average) in subscription fees (we do offer year long member discounts once per year as well).

That would take your year 2 profit down to $1,584.42 if you followed all models and used a $5,000 bank. That is still a 31.68% return on capital. But if you’re bank is any lower then that then it might be better to invest elsewhere. If your bank is bigger then it is much less of an issue.

Just something to think about when deciding to trust your hard earned money to a tipster.

Conclusion

Judging by the survey results I can only assume that most members did extremely well in year 2 and not only beat the official results, but probably doubled them. There were a fair few members who only took up the AFL model and they would be sitting on a loss right now. I believe that will quickly get back into positive territory and from the 6th of July to the 20th of July (today) the AFL has already made back 7.15 units at 27.4% ROI.

I’m pleased with how the service has done over the past 2 years and look forward to many decades of similar results for all members. Dailyprofit is simply the fairest, most honest and transparent service on the internet today. It was built that way because I was sick of all the other tipster services out there and decided to create the worlds best tipping site. All this honesty would be worthless if there were no profits to go along with it, but we have shown that there are great results.

If you want to join a community of profitable members and start making a profit from your betting, just sign up on the homepage.

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6 Comments

  1. Gates says:

    While I appreciate the transparency in factoring in subscription costs, I think averaging the subscriptions is deceptive though perhaps unintentionally so. How is this any different from recording odds that will disappear instantly after posting?

    Surely an analysis such as this should be done on current market prices? Doing so would bring your calculations down another $1,020 to provide a profit of only 564.42 for the full year result.

    • ADMIN (Steve) ADMIN (Steve) says:

      Hi Gates,

      Here is my thinking on it. The current market price has only been around for the last 6 months, I would think the market price at the start of year 2 would be a better option as that is when this review starts. That price was $69. It’s a tough one to pick and I decided to go with the average of all current members.

      I assumed each member would work out their own subscription cost as they know what they pay. As you have done below.
      As I said, it will be different for each member (so took the average member as an example only).

      But each member will be different. Each member will also have a different bank. I could also have just used a $10,000 bank and stated double profits in terms of real dollars made. As I mention in the post, you need to work out what your bank is and what your costs will be and then see if the service is right for you.

      I also understand your frustration, as you are a recent member (joined yesterday) just to the Value service, you are paying about $7 more then the average Value member. By pointing out that some members are paying less, it can make the ones paying more feel bad. The spread between $33 and $137 for Sportpunter clients is massive (and I’ll be addressing that discrepancy at the end of this AFL/NRL season)

      • Gates says:

        Hi,

        Thanks for the reply. I’m not really frustrated, at the end of the day you’re running a business and I completely understand that costs for things do go up. Particularly in this line of business your cost increases can be justified, because a longer positive record inherently makes your offering more valuable. I actually applaud you for grandfathering charges as I think it’s a very decent thing to do to reward customer loyalty that not enough businesses do.

        Also if the $7 more I’m paying bothered me I probably shouldn’t be betting anyway as money is clearly too tight for me to be able to handle the variance. I actually just signed up to the base package to get a better feel for this site after only finding it and your blog recently. So far my experience has been extremely positive and your constructive response here is certainly contributing to that.

        If my experience continues to be positive I’ll likely sign up to the sportspunter service as well, while the spread is massive as you say it is illogical to factor that into any decision I make. Really what I need to work out is if the $137 is going to likely have a positive or a negative end financial result for myself. As you say this depends on many factors apart from the monthly cost such as bank size. Based on your recommended games to follow I may wait til the start of seasons next year as there is a potential lull period coming up (though if your plan to address the discrepancy is by lowering the current price rather than increasing grandfathered costs I may reconsider).

        I am inclined to agree with you that the market price at the start of year 2 would likely be the fairest metric to use given you are comparing full year results, my personal feedback would be to consider using this in your next yearly review but that is of course up to you.I think overall your analysis in this post has been extremely fair and thorough and I thank you for that, it certainly gives me information to work with going forward.

        • ADMIN (Steve) ADMIN (Steve) says:

          Gates, you will do well with your betting. Looking at everything from a sensible viewpoint and with an analytical mind.

          I’ll never rise prices on current members. The price will be coming down and members paying more then the new lower price will be moved to it when that happens.

  2. […] second full year of service ended in July and we have already reviewed the Sportpunter service. Today we take a look back on the past year of the Value and Risk free service. You can read last […]

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